What Happened

Luxury real estate sales are experiencing significant growth in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Ottawa, marking a shift from the traditional dominance of Toronto and Vancouver. According to a report by Re/Max Canada, sales in these four cities grew by more than 10 per cent between Jan. 1 and April 30 compared to the same period in 2025. Calgary led the charge with 65 luxury sales in the first four months of the year, representing a 47.7 per cent year-over-year growth. In Saskatoon, luxury home sales, defined as homes sold for $900,000 or more, were up 27.3 per cent. Conversely, Hamilton experienced a 20.9 per cent decline in luxury home sales, defined as homes sold for $1.2 million or more. In the traditional luxury hubs of Toronto and Vancouver, where luxury is defined as homes sold for $3 million or more, sales fell 16.9 per cent and 19.8 per cent respectively. Despite these regional disparities, home sales across Canada climbed 5.5 per cent in May, marking the strongest month-over-month increase of the year, though sales remained down year-over-year nationally according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Phil Soper, President and Chief Executive Officer of Royal LePage, discussed the market outlook with Financial Post, noting that months of slumping sales and rising listings have given buyers real choice and bargaining power for the first time in years. Soper also highlighted the attraction of some Americans to Canada during Donald Trump's second term as a factor influencing the real estate market.

Why It Matters

The divergence in luxury real estate performance highlights a fundamental shift in Canadian housing demand. While Toronto and Vancouver have historically been the primary drivers of luxury sales, other major cities are now feeling the heat, suggesting a decentralization of high-end market activity. This shift is critical for understanding where capital is flowing and which markets are offering the most liquidity for high-net-worth individuals. The decline in Toronto and Vancouver luxury sales, defined as homes sold for $3 million or more, indicates that affordability and market saturation may be cooling demand in these traditional hotbeds. Meanwhile, the surge in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Ottawa suggests that buyers are seeking value and growth in other regions. The national context, with home sales down year-over-year despite a monthly increase, underscores the ongoing challenges in the broader housing market. The bargaining power gained by buyers due to rising listings is a significant factor that could continue to influence pricing and sales velocity in the coming months. Understanding these regional dynamics is essential for investors, buyers, and sellers to make informed decisions in a fragmented market.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

In Vancouver, the luxury real estate market has experienced major declines in sales, with a 19.8 per cent drop in homes sold for $3 million or more. This cooling is attributed to higher mortgage rates that have tempered the buying frenzy previously seen in the city. Burnaby, as part of the Greater Vancouver area, is similarly affected by these broader regional trends, although specific Burnaby luxury sales data is not detailed in the current report. The traditional dominance of Toronto and Vancouver as Canada's luxury real estate hotbeds is being challenged by other markets. In Calgary, high demand for high-end homes is expected to continue in 2025, following a year of growth that outpaced all other major Canadian cities. This shift indicates that buyers are looking beyond the traditional coastal hubs for opportunities. The varying definitions of luxury by city, such as $900,000 in Saskatoon and $1.2 million in Hamilton, complicate direct comparisons but highlight the localized nature of high-end market dynamics. For Burnaby residents and investors, this means that while the city may not be the primary focus of current luxury growth, it is part of a broader national trend where affordability and market conditions are driving demand to new regions. The increased bargaining power for buyers, as noted by Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper, suggests that the market is becoming more balanced, which could impact property values and sales timelines in the Greater Vancouver area.

Market Impact

The shift in luxury sales from Toronto and Vancouver to cities like Calgary and Ottawa impacts market liquidity and pricing power. In Toronto and Vancouver, the decline in luxury sales suggests a potential softening in the high-end segment, which could lead to longer days on market and increased price negotiations. Conversely, the surge in Calgary and Edmonton indicates strong demand and potentially rising prices in those markets. The national context of year-over-year sales declines, despite monthly gains, suggests that the market is still navigating challenges related to affordability and interest rates. For homeowners in Toronto and Vancouver, this may mean a more competitive selling environment for luxury properties. In contrast, sellers in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Ottawa may benefit from heightened buyer interest. The increased bargaining power for buyers across Canada, due to rising listings, could lead to more favorable terms for purchasers in both luxury and non-luxury segments. This dynamic is particularly relevant for investors looking to capitalize on regional growth opportunities or avoid markets with declining demand.

Investor / Buyer Takeaway

- Buyers in Toronto and Vancouver may find increased bargaining power in the luxury segment, defined as homes sold for $3 million or more, due to declining sales and rising listings.

- Investors should monitor Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Ottawa for continued growth in luxury sales, as these markets are outpacing traditional hubs.

- Sellers in Hamilton should be aware of the 20.9 per cent decline in luxury sales, defined as homes sold for $1.2 million or more, and may need to adjust pricing strategies.

- Buyers nationwide should note that despite a 5.5 per cent monthly increase in May, home sales remain down year-over-year, indicating ongoing market caution.

- Consider the impact of geopolitical factors, such as Donald Trump's second term, on cross-border investment flows, as noted by Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper.

Builder / Developer Perspective

The divergence in luxury sales trends presents distinct opportunities and challenges for builders and developers. In Calgary and Edmonton, the high demand for high-end homes suggests a favorable environment for new luxury developments, with potential for strong pre-sales and pricing power. However, in Toronto and Vancouver, the decline in luxury sales may lead to increased caution among developers, potentially slowing new project launches or requiring more aggressive pricing strategies. The varying definitions of luxury by city mean that development feasibility and target demographics differ significantly across regions. Builders in Saskatoon and Ottawa may find a growing market for high-end properties, while those in Hamilton face a declining segment. The national context of rising listings and buyer bargaining power suggests that developers must be agile in responding to market conditions. Financing and construction costs remain critical factors, but the shift in demand highlights the importance of location-specific strategies. Developers should closely monitor regional economic indicators and buyer sentiment to align their pipelines with actual demand.

Risk Factors

- Affordability challenges in Toronto and Vancouver may continue to suppress luxury sales, impacting property values and developer confidence.

- Rising interest rates could further cool the housing market, reducing buyer demand and increasing the risk of price corrections in high-end segments.

- Geopolitical uncertainties, including the impact of Donald Trump's second term, may influence cross-border investment flows and market stability.

- Varying luxury market definitions across cities complicate data comparability and may lead to misinterpretation of regional trends.

- Increased inventory and buyer bargaining power could lead to prolonged sales cycles and reduced profit margins for sellers and developers.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The luxury real estate landscape in Canada is undergoing a significant transformation, with growth shifting from the traditional coastal hubs of Toronto and Vancouver to cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Ottawa. This decentralization is driven by a combination of affordability pressures in major metros and strong economic fundamentals in other regions. For Burnaby and Greater Vancouver, this means that while the city may not be the primary focus of current luxury growth, it is part of a broader national trend where buyers are seeking value and liquidity elsewhere. The increased bargaining power for buyers, due to rising listings, suggests a more balanced market that could impact property values and sales timelines. Investors and homeowners should pay close attention to regional economic indicators and buyer sentiment to navigate this fragmented landscape effectively. The shift highlights the importance of location-specific strategies in a market where no single city can be relied upon to drive national luxury trends.